Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $49,032$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(3.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,145.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(51,145.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,703$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(402 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,893.5}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,893.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,437$ on 2020-05-01

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $213,435$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,433.2}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(212,433.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,543$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,890.1}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(23,890.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $76,842$ on 2020-05-01

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $207,428$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{204,245.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(204,245.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,236$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,007.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,007.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $100,943$ on 2020-05-01

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $178,685$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(7.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{189,891.6}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(189,891.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,583$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,637.7}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(28,637.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $150,210$ on 2020-05-01

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $167,305$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178,451.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(178,451.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24,628$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,600.3}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(24,600.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91,553$ on 2020-05-01

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,989$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(3.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,699.4}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41,699.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,909$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(364 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,990.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,990.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,942$ on 2020-05-01

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,520$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(950 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,086.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 48.4)}}\) (asimptote \(26,086.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,653$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(116 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,019.9}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,019.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,862$ on 2020-05-01

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,833$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(850 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,007.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,007.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,265$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(26.2 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,714.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,714.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,182$ on 2020-05-01

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 91%
Austria recovered 80%
Malta recovered 77%
Switzerland recovered 72%
Germany recovered 58%
Andorra recovered 54%
Croatia recovered 53%
Denmark recovered 45%
North Macedonia recovered 38%
Spain recovered 24%
Czechia recovered 24%
Slovakia recovered 20%
Italy recovered 7%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,798$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(314 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.2}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(1.91 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.6}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $99$ on 2020-05-01

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,531$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(2.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,951.5}{1 + 10^{-0.085 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,951.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $589$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(56 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{595.1}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(595.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,832$ on 2020-05-01

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $467$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(69.1 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{480.9}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(480.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4$ on 2020-05-01

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $80$ on 2020-05-01

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,705$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(4.42 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,883.5}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,883.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,754$ on 2020-05-01

Best fit exponential: \(131 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,753.9}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 35.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,753.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,051$ on 2020-05-01