Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,032$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(3.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,145.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(51,145.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,703$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(402 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,893.5}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,893.5\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,437$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $213,435$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(2.46 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,433.2}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(212,433.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $24,543$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(2.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,890.1}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(23,890.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $76,842$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $207,428$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(2.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{204,245.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(204,245.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,236$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,007.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,007.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $100,943$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $178,685$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(7.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{189,891.6}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(189,891.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,583$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,637.7}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(28,637.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $150,210$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $167,305$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178,451.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 39.6)}}\) (asimptote \(178,451.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $24,628$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,600.3}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(24,600.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $91,553$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $39,989$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(3.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,699.4}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41,699.4\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,909$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(364 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,990.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,990.8\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,942$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,520$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(950 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,086.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 48.4)}}\) (asimptote \(26,086.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,653$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(116 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,019.9}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,019.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,862$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $20,833$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(850 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,007.8}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,007.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,265$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(26.2 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,714.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 43.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,714.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,182$ on 2020-05-01
